Sunday, October 6, 2013

Changing tack from Steven Jobs's Four Year Plan

I have heard a few times that part of Steve Jobs legacy - is a four year product plan for Apple.




No one is  sure of its existence - however this Gizmodo article indicates it is likely - as four years plans are a standard corporate practice (so let's not be mysterious about this!).

It's hard to imagine Jobs focusing on such a plan - during the final passage of his life. However, being such a passionate person, you can imagine him pen to paper - much like Mozart was in his final days.

So what if his plan is wrong or what if the plan needs adjusting?

Goodness knows - Apple is currently investing a huge amount in Research and Development - and to be sure - there will be teams working on projects- that aren't just upgrades of the iPhone and iPad.

However one area where Apple has disappointed is services -like SIRI. SIRI started with such promise - but   is now a poor second to Google Now. The whole - intuitive assistant idea - ended up "owned" by Google's superior machine learning, gargantuan repository of information (the entire web) plus its unsurpassed data on digital interaction (profile + clickstream).

There are reports that Apple is beefing up SIRI (aqui-hiring) etc.. but will they be able to compete? - without access to a comparable data repository and analytics systems (a deal with Microsoft? or Yahoo!). Certainly small start-ups will struggle to fill this void.

A lot of the "brains" behind SIRI is Wolfram's Mathematica platform - so perhaps something is  being worked on? perhaps Mathematica is an acquisition target -  or more likely a joint venture?

Maps is the other focus - but Google bought WAZE - so are way ahead.

But there mobile ecosystems that are failing - possibly leaving a gap - notably - the digital wallet - and NFC payments (Apple doesn't support NFC - much like they didn't FLASH) . A cross between highly accurate location data (and low powered) + bio-metric authentication - a payment play?

It will be interesting - the iWatch could be a good source of bio info - did you know your heart beat - has a clear signature for instance? Combined with decent fingerprinting - it could provide two phase authentication.

The most aggressive of Apple's competitors is Samsung - who has a strategy of developing products to fill the "Apple rumor space".

Like Apple - Samsung also does not have in-house machine learning smarts - relying on external companies - such as Nuance (for voice).

In a way victory - could come to the company - who masters user data and machine learning fastest - the one who can truly make a "smart phone".

Who knows - but I interested to see how Tim Cook's reign pans out. He seems tough and strong to me - and I am hoping he is privy to some amazing innovations - that will hit the market - fully formed - when the time is right!

And let's be humble - it might be a fruit machine game (or candy) - that ends up dominating the world!



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